Newspaper logo  
 
 
  Did Bush Lose the Election?

COMMENTARY:

Did Bush Lose the Election?

by Margie Burns

As things stand right now, it seems unlikely that Mr. Bush won the 2004 presidential election.
As things stand right now, it seems unlikely that Mr. Bush won the election.

There are two major categories of problems. One affects the electoral vote. Release of the final exit polls conducted in all states shows a pattern that cannot be explained away. The exit polls were released (not to the general public) at 4:00 p.m. on Election Day by polling consultants Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

These are the genuine exit polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, taken before the outcome was known in any particular state. These are not the “exit polls” that organizations including CNN went back and retroactively changed after the election, making them conform more to vote tallies.

The exit poll results are laid out straightforwardly in a very clear list (tabulation). Compared to the vote tallies given the public, they seem amazing. Contrary to results in every election for the past twenty years, the variance between exit polls the published vote tally was more than two points--in other words a swing of 4% or 5% or more to Bush, in 33 of 51 jurisdictions. Regardless of which candidate won in those states, a big variance, always in the same direction, allegedly occurred in every single exit poll in all of them.

Exit polls from the next nine states down the list were also reversed by a smaller swing toward Bush in the published vote tally, including in the District of Columbia and Maryland. Thus, to sum up, a four-out-five-state swing to Bush is alleged in an election where every indication showed new voters, independent voters, and younger voters trending toward Kerry and/or away from Bush, and in an election where turnout increased, even though increased voter turnout generally favors the challenger against the incumbent.

Exit polls are not just polls. They are polls of people who actually showed up to vote, taken just after the voting, and weighted to take into account any preponderance of one group. Exit polls are used to check and verify the validity of elections in countries including Germany and Mexico.

Furthermore, this crucial swing occurred in all the close states: Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa all allegedly had the same “red shift.” Most seemingly shifted more than two points, in other words a swing of 4% or 5%, regardless of the size or region of the state, or whether it went for Bush or Kerry.

A paper titled “The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy” has been published by Dr. Steven F. Freeman, whose Ph.D. in organizational studies came from MIT and who holds professorships at the University of Pennsylvania and at an international MBA program founded by Harvard. According to Professor Freeman, the swing between exit poll and vote tally is an anomaly even if you take just the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. “The likelihood of any two of these statistical anomalies occurring together is on the order of one-in-a-million," he says. "The odds against all three occurring together are 250 million to one.”

Disclaimer: I distrust opinion polls and much other polling. I have long worried that incessant polling can weaken the individual’s reliance on his/her own judgment, can plant suggestions, can intimidate reporters, and can manipulate public acceptance of the unacceptable. Following this election, an opinion poll has already been published suggesting that most people are relieved that the outcome was clear.

All well and good, if it was clear. But the integrity of counting votes is essential to our nation’s survival as a democracy. Obsession about who is ahead before the election, the “horse race” question, is often silly. But after the election, the question of who won is fundamental. No other question is nearly as important.

Exit polls are not just polls. They are polls of people who actually showed up to vote, taken just after the voting, and weighted to take into account any preponderance of one group. Professor Freeman’s paper points out that exit polls are used to check and verify the validity of elections in countries including Germany and Mexico; when exit polls contradicted the claim that Eduard Shevardnadze had won election in the former Soviet country of Georgia, he was forced to resign under pressure from the US among others.

Immediate investigation is most urgent in four states that the swing from exit poll to published vote tally also swung from Kerry to Bush: Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Iowa. The many problems already reported from counties and precincts in all four states more than corroborate the suggestion raised by the exit poll tabulation. These four states also add up to 59 electoral votes, more than enough to have tilted the election outcome.

The Electoral College is not the whole story. Questions have arisen that affect the popular vote count even in “safe” states. Stay tuned.


Margie Burns writes freelance in Maryland. She can be reached at margie.burns@verizon.net.



Copyright © 2004 The Baltimore Chronicle. All rights reserved.

Republication or redistribution of Baltimore Chronicle content is expressly prohibited without their prior written consent.

This story was published on November 22, 2004.

 
Local Stories, Events

Ref. : Civic Events

Ref. : Arts & Education Events

Ref. : Public Service Notices

Books, Films, Arts & Education
Letters

Ref. : Letters to the editor

Health Care & Environment

05.23 China factories releasing thousands of tonnes of illegal CFC gases, study finds [Instead of depleting the stratospheric ozone layer, which protects us from the sun’s ultra-violet radiation, we should enhance the ozone layer to also reduce infrared radiation CO2 absorbs and heats from—in a reversible way to be safe]

05.22 Over 1,351 Climate Strikes in 110 Countries Planned for Friday as Global Revolt Escalates

05.22 Much shorter working weeks needed to tackle climate crisis – study [Less supervised internet-based work from home would be more likely]

05.22 Internal emails reveal how the chemical lobby fights regulation [Political lobbying including unlimited bribes is terribly effective, especially when politicians are immoral]

05.22 Is modern life poisoning me? I took the tests to find out

05.19 The heat is on over the climate crisis. Only radical measures will work

05.18 The selfish case for saving bees: it’s how to save ourselves

05.17 Revealed: air pollution may be damaging 'every organ in the body’

05.16 Cambridge scientists create world’s first living organism with fully redesigned DNA

05.16 Electric 'flying taxi' prototype unveiled by German start-up

05.16 ‘Extraordinary thinning’ of ice sheets revealed deep inside Antarctica

05.15 Plastic pollution harms bacteria that produce 10 per cent of oxygen we breathe, study reveals [We keep learning more about ways we're killing life faster and faster]

05.13 The Guardian view on a Green New Deal: we need it now [Inaction would bring faster hardship and death]

05.13 Los Angeles Fire Season Is Beginning Again. And It Will Never End.

05.13 Climate change: UN chief Guterres decries 'fading' global efforts

News Media Matters

05.23 Finland is winning the war on fake news. What it’s learned may be crucial to Western democracy [3:52 video]

05.22 What if we covered the climate crisis like we did the start of World War II?

05.22 Far-right Facebook groups 'spreading hate to millions in Europe'

05.22 Climate crisis more politically polarizing than abortion for US voters, study finds [Faux News spreads lies and distortion to millions in America, and mainstream news sources avoid annoying corporate advertisers—also programmed by Faux]

Daily: FAIR Blog
The Daily Howler

US Politics, Policy & 'Culture'

05.23 Joe Biden, Warmonger

05.23 Republicans aren’t just climate deniers. They deny the extinction crisis, too [As taught by Fox News and bribed by fossil fuel companies]

05.23 Bernie Sanders Is Bringing Back the Most Underrated Education Policy

05.23 To 'Circumvent' White House Obstruction, New York Passes Bill to Give Congress Access to Trump Tax Returns

05.23 'A Small Tax on Wall Street to Make Big Change': Bernie Sanders and Barbara Lee Introduce New Financial Transaction Tax

05.22 Contempt or impeachment? Trump and Democrats locked in ultimate congressional battle

05.22 This Is How Republics Die

05.22 'It's a Sure Winner—Except for the Profiteers': 200+ Economists Send Letter to Congress Endorsing Medicare for All

05.21 Revolting Against Speaker's Inaction, Pelosi's Own Leadership Team Demands Trump Impeachment Proceedings

05.21 The Trump economy is hurting most Americans. Statistics won't fool voters

05.21 Trump stops ex-White House counsel Don McGahn testifying to Congress [What's Baby Trump hiding?]

05.21 Can It Happen Here? [What can we do with adults who act-out emotionally and physically like children]

05.21 E.P.A. Plans to Get Thousands of Deaths Off the Books by Changing Its Math [Wrong way Trump is at it again]

Justice Matters

05.22 Outrage as Texas Senate Passes 'Unconstitutional' Bill That Would Hit Pipeline Protestors With Up to 10 Years in Prison

05.21 Rich white men rule America. How much longer will we tolerate that?

High Crimes

05.21 Palestinians need a state, not a 'business plan' [They have slow-motion genocide now...]

Economics & Corrupt Capitalism

05.22 Capitalism used to promise a better future. Can it still do that?

International & Futurism

05.23 Impeachment Should Be on the Table If Trump Bombs Iran

05.23 The Great Power Game is On and China is Winning

05.22 Austria’s crisis is a lesson for Europe: far-right parties are unfit to govern [We've seen this playbook before!]

05.21 Trump's China trade war risks damaging US economy, says OECD [Does Baby Trump know what he's doing?]

05.20 What longer paternity leave did for men in Spain

05.20 The rise of social supermarkets: 'It's not about selling cheap food, but building strong communities'

05.20 European elections: how the six biggest countries will vote

We are a non-profit Internet-only newspaper publication founded in 1973. Your donation is essential to our survival.

You can also mail a check to:
Baltimore News Network, Inc.
P.O. Box 42581
Baltimore, MD 21284-2581
Google
This site Web

Public Service Ads: