Newspaper logo  
 
 
  Did Bush Lose the Election?

COMMENTARY:

Did Bush Lose the Election?

by Margie Burns

As things stand right now, it seems unlikely that Mr. Bush won the 2004 presidential election.
As things stand right now, it seems unlikely that Mr. Bush won the election.

There are two major categories of problems. One affects the electoral vote. Release of the final exit polls conducted in all states shows a pattern that cannot be explained away. The exit polls were released (not to the general public) at 4:00 p.m. on Election Day by polling consultants Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

These are the genuine exit polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, taken before the outcome was known in any particular state. These are not the “exit polls” that organizations including CNN went back and retroactively changed after the election, making them conform more to vote tallies.

The exit poll results are laid out straightforwardly in a very clear list (tabulation). Compared to the vote tallies given the public, they seem amazing. Contrary to results in every election for the past twenty years, the variance between exit polls the published vote tally was more than two points--in other words a swing of 4% or 5% or more to Bush, in 33 of 51 jurisdictions. Regardless of which candidate won in those states, a big variance, always in the same direction, allegedly occurred in every single exit poll in all of them.

Exit polls from the next nine states down the list were also reversed by a smaller swing toward Bush in the published vote tally, including in the District of Columbia and Maryland. Thus, to sum up, a four-out-five-state swing to Bush is alleged in an election where every indication showed new voters, independent voters, and younger voters trending toward Kerry and/or away from Bush, and in an election where turnout increased, even though increased voter turnout generally favors the challenger against the incumbent.

Exit polls are not just polls. They are polls of people who actually showed up to vote, taken just after the voting, and weighted to take into account any preponderance of one group. Exit polls are used to check and verify the validity of elections in countries including Germany and Mexico.

Furthermore, this crucial swing occurred in all the close states: Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa all allegedly had the same “red shift.” Most seemingly shifted more than two points, in other words a swing of 4% or 5%, regardless of the size or region of the state, or whether it went for Bush or Kerry.

A paper titled “The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy” has been published by Dr. Steven F. Freeman, whose Ph.D. in organizational studies came from MIT and who holds professorships at the University of Pennsylvania and at an international MBA program founded by Harvard. According to Professor Freeman, the swing between exit poll and vote tally is an anomaly even if you take just the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. “The likelihood of any two of these statistical anomalies occurring together is on the order of one-in-a-million," he says. "The odds against all three occurring together are 250 million to one.”

Disclaimer: I distrust opinion polls and much other polling. I have long worried that incessant polling can weaken the individual’s reliance on his/her own judgment, can plant suggestions, can intimidate reporters, and can manipulate public acceptance of the unacceptable. Following this election, an opinion poll has already been published suggesting that most people are relieved that the outcome was clear.

All well and good, if it was clear. But the integrity of counting votes is essential to our nation’s survival as a democracy. Obsession about who is ahead before the election, the “horse race” question, is often silly. But after the election, the question of who won is fundamental. No other question is nearly as important.

Exit polls are not just polls. They are polls of people who actually showed up to vote, taken just after the voting, and weighted to take into account any preponderance of one group. Professor Freeman’s paper points out that exit polls are used to check and verify the validity of elections in countries including Germany and Mexico; when exit polls contradicted the claim that Eduard Shevardnadze had won election in the former Soviet country of Georgia, he was forced to resign under pressure from the US among others.

Immediate investigation is most urgent in four states that the swing from exit poll to published vote tally also swung from Kerry to Bush: Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Iowa. The many problems already reported from counties and precincts in all four states more than corroborate the suggestion raised by the exit poll tabulation. These four states also add up to 59 electoral votes, more than enough to have tilted the election outcome.

The Electoral College is not the whole story. Questions have arisen that affect the popular vote count even in “safe” states. Stay tuned.


Margie Burns writes freelance in Maryland. She can be reached at margie.burns@verizon.net.



Copyright © 2004 The Baltimore Chronicle. All rights reserved.

Republication or redistribution of Baltimore Chronicle content is expressly prohibited without their prior written consent.

This story was published on November 22, 2004.

 
Local Gov’t Stories, Events

Ref. : Civic Events

Ref. : Arts & Education Events

Ref. : Public Service Notices

Futurism
Books, Films, Arts & Education
Letters

Ref. : Letters to the editor

Health Care & Environment

07.19 Some Americans Do Love Their Health Care (They're Expats)

07.19 Polluted air 'poisoning thousands' across north of England, warns report

07.19 Mercedes recalls 3m diesel cars over emissions concerns

07.19 Climate denial is like The Matrix; more Republicans are choosing the red pill [4:26 video]

07.16 Major Cities Like NYC and Oakland Will Face Massive Flooding if We Don’t Act

07.16 Temer Signs Law That Could See Millions of Acres Lost in the Amazon [similar to Trump's privatization of US federal public/park land]

07.16 Trump regrets 'bizarre mistake' of Paris climate pullout, Branson claims [just hearsay? would a Republican ever dis the Koch brothers?]

07.15 Verily Robot Will Raise 20 Million Sterile Mosquitoes for Release in California

07.15 The Uninhabitable Earth

News Media Matters

07.18 How liars create the ‘illusion of truth’

Daily: FAIR Blog
The Daily Howler

US Politics, Policy & 'Culture'

07.20 What It Means to Be on the Left [what a shame that America denies such thoughtful discussion in mainstream media...]

07.20 H.R. 1628, Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017 [a pattern of willfull immoral conduct by Republicans in Congress: a small increase in taxing the very-rich or on burning fossil fuels would solved many problems more equitably]

07.20 Hillary Clinton is more unpopular than Donald Trump. Let that sink in

07.20 No water for poor people: the nine Americans who risked jail to seek justice [a pattern of willfull immoral conduct in Gov. Rick Snyder's Michigan, where a small increase in taxing the very-rich or for gasoline would have solved many problems without hurting a desperately poor population]

07.19 Resistance Not Enough: Progressive Groups Push Democrats to Back #PeoplesPlatform

07.19 To My Fellow Plutocrats: You Can Cure Trumpism

07.19 Why Republicans Want the 2020 Census to Fail

07.19 Democrats Are Trying to Win the 2018 Midterms in All the Wrong Ways

07.19 Six ways Trump is 'dismantling' the US after six months in office

07.18 GOP's repeal-only plan quickly collapses in Senate

07.18 The Real Voter Fraud

07.18 This Billionaire Mega-Donor Gets It: The Democrats Need Bernie Sanders [We need to catch-up with changes smarter & fairer countries did 70 years ago]

07.18 Decaying infrastructure taking a toll on America [can we outsource for better government?]

07.18 Senate will vote to repeal Obamacare without replacement, after new healthcare bill stumbles [unfair, illogical and immoral government fails again because of "traitors"]

Justice Matters
High Crimes?
Economics, Crony Capitalism

07.20 Asia's coal-fired power boom 'bankrolled by foreign governments and banks' [after being warned by the World Bank against building new coal burning coal power plants—as their use may soon become illegal, will the public be forced to pay-off such stupid loans?]

07.19 Steps to Starting a Cooperative [1:32:17 video]

07.19 End of the 'rip-off': all charges for paying by card to be banned [a possiblity in the more corrupt U.S.?]

07.19 A despot in disguise: one man’s mission to rip up democracy [treason is much too kind a word for this]

07.17 JP Morgan chief blasts US dysfunction: 'It's almost an embarrassment being American' [enabled by the Citizens United Ruling, Birchers—founded and funded by the Koch bros. network—ruthlessly pursue personal profits, destroying America and its public as byproducts]

07.17 Trump's tax proposal would push US below Greece on inequality index [disgusting]

07.17 The Guardian view on the 1%: all gain, no pain

International & Futurism

07.20 Why Canada Is Able to Do Things Better [they avoid childish reasoning]

07.20 U.S. Lawmakers Seek to Criminally Outlaw Support for Boycott Campaign Against Israel [Israel is quilty of war crimes over decades against Palestinians, but let's just ignore that...]

07.20 Bernie Sanders on how to avoid war with North Korea

07.20 Crime rise is biggest in a decade, ONS figures show [how does this correlate with rising inequality and poverty, we don't wonder]

07.19 EU Commission concerned about living standards for future generations

07.19 “It’s like millions of ants are biting my bones” – fighting sickle cell disease in Nigeria

07.19 Mexico leaders' pledges fall short as graft remains 'heart of the political system'

07.19 Walk, work, win: hi-tech knees to get young amputees back on their feet

07.18 The Fourth Industrial Revolution is about empowering people, not the rise of the machines

07.18 The Burden of Taxation in the United States and Germany [interesting and clearly written]

07.17 Governments have to invest in the fourth industrial revolution

We are a non-profit Internet-only newspaper publication founded in 1973. Your donation is essential to our survival.

You can also mail a check to:
Baltimore News Network, Inc.
P.O. Box 42581
Baltimore, MD 21284-2581
Google
This site Web

Public Service Ads: